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Another Death Knell for the Guitar?


diablo175

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Maybe others have seen or posted it already-- I came across it on FB and thought to share. Hopefully the link will work. Likely have to have an FB account.

 

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I think that article was already discussed here when it first came out. Frankly, I think the only thing that may be dying is the new guitar market. But I'm confident people are buying used guitars as much as ever because there's a glut of them which makes getting a nice one far more affordable than buying new. Just look at the ridiculously low prices of used USA Hamers compared to new boutique guitars. Which would you rather buy? How many people gassing on this forum are buying new instead of used?

I think the only person who has to worry about this situation the most are sellers (and that goes with everything; not just guitars). The poor economy and the glut of stuff for sale on the internet has brought prices down on everything unless you have something really rare for sale... And if the Internet doesn't do us in, cheap Chinese forgeries built with cheap Chinese labor doesn't help our industries either.

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The popularity of guitar-based rock and pop pretty much has risen and fallen with the Baby Boom generation. The boom lasted from 1946 to 1964, where each year the US had around 4 million live births for a 19-year continuous stretch. Those born in 1946 were about 10 when early rock 'n' roll--Elvis, Chuck Berry, Little Richard, Bill Haley, etc.--got going. There were around 40 million americans aged 9-18 in 1964 when The Beatles took hold in America. This was quickly followed by the British Invasion that established guitar-based rock as the baseline for almost all forms of pop music for many years to come. And the entire Baby Boom generation of nearly 80 million people became its primary market. That was 40% of the US population in 1967. In 1976 with the onset of punk, KISS, New Wave, disco, etc. it was still nearly 37% of the population and by then the age range was 12 to 30. That would also explain the diversification of pop music in the mid-'70s. The leading edge was already 30; many were turning to disco and synth-pop.

By now guitar-based rock/pop has largely run its course compared to the days of the Woodstock and Isle of Wight festivals. I picked up guitar in late 1996 when I was 43. It seems that there were many like me, where guitars had a resurgence as Baby Boomers hit middle age and wanted one last fling playing in bands or at least strumming at home. They also had the discretionary income to buy heaps of guitars and amps they couldn't have afforded as teenagers. That's also when 1958 Les Pauls started hitting $240K.

I think of the Baby Boom generation as the inexorable influence on the US economy, about as controllable as plate tectonics. Throughout its existence it has influenced inflation, real estate prices, dealing with school crowding, and just about everything else, including musical tastes and demand for the instruments to play them.

Consider:

  • The first mass protests happened in Berkeley in 1964. This is when the first year Baby Boomers turned 18.
  • Inflation in the US tripled between 1967 and 1985. 1967 is when the first-year boomers turned 21, and 1985 is when the final-year boomers turned 21. I have so far found no other 19-year period in the 20th century when inflation tripled. In fact, inflation has only doubled in the 32 years since 1985.  The $419 I spent in 1972 for my first stereo is equivalent to $2,453.72 today.
  • In the early '80s, real estate loans were going for 15-18%, when the last of the Baby Boomers were turning 21.
  • Now the Baby Boomers are aged 53 to 71. I turn 64 in less than 2 mos and I often don't have the energy to do half the things I really like that I used to do every chance I had. 

It's further complicated by the fact that Millenials have little to no interest in all the stuff the boomers accumulated through the years. For example, what was once heirloom furniture is now thrift shop donation fodder.  It's not just guitars: it's also fine china, silverware, bed frames, burled wood, bureaus, wardrobes, sofas, end tables, dining sets, etc.

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16 minutes ago, JohnnyB said:

It's further complicated by the fact that Millenials have little to no interest in all the stuff the boomers accumulated through the years. For example, what was once heirloom furniture is now thrift shop donation fodder.  It's not just guitars: it's also fine china, silverware, bed frames, burled wood, bureaus, wardrobes, sofas, end tables, dining sets, etc.

All of that stuff sits in mini-warehouses.  When people die the children (often old themselves) cannot bear to let go of the memories, but have no place for the stuff.  They pay thousands over the years to store the stuff, then one day donate it or dump it.  With all the stuff being stored, there really is no reason to make new furniture. 

And one day there will be no need to make new guitars.  People will be dying with 20 unplayed high dollar instruments.  The kids will store them for eight years, then dump them to keep from paying more rent. 

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For all of the "the world is overpopulated" nuts out there, few of them stop to consider the implications from what was mentioned above. We actually have fewer people to purchase more junk being produced. This is simply not sustainable. Either some manufacturing has to slow down or we need to start creating more consumers. For markets where goods are not intentionally made to be disposable (like guitars or fine furniture), that's bad news for manufacturers because people will simply purchase from the plentiful and inexpensive surplus of used samples.

Of course, those providing consumable goods/services (like toilet-paper manufacturers or barbers) will be unaffected by nearly any market condition. This is probably why companies like Apple are positioning their products as consumables by making them as irreparable, unserviceable, and short-lived as possible. And whether it's intentional or not, new cars are turning into consumables because they're becoming black boxes that no one will be able to service for themselves and the cost to have them repaired will be so cost-prohibitive that it'll be cheaper to buy a new car than to fix one (which is why I never want to own a car made in this century if I can help it. Buy an older vehicle of which bazillions were made and there will always be aftermarket manufacturers providing parts for anyone willing to turn a wrench). 

But back to the bottom line on guitars: there are too many good used guitars for sale to ever have to buy a new one at full price. That's the ugly reality manufacturers are facing. 

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20 hours ago, Steve Haynie said:

Computers can write hit songs now.  Who needs a musician? -_-

Wrong for the question!

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On 9/23/2017 at 2:21 PM, JohnnyB said:

The popularity of guitar-based rock and pop pretty much has risen and fallen with the Baby Boom generation. The boom lasted from 1946 to 1964, where each year the US had around 4 million live births for a 19-year continuous stretch. Those born in 1946 were about 10 when early rock 'n' roll--Elvis, Chuck Berry, Little Richard, Bill Haley, etc.--got going. There were around 40 million americans aged 9-18 in 1964 when The Beatles took hold in America. This was quickly followed by the British Invasion that established guitar-based rock as the baseline for almost all forms of pop music for many years to come. And the entire Baby Boom generation of nearly 80 million people became its primary market. That was 40% of the US population in 1967. In 1976 with the onset of punk, KISS, New Wave, disco, etc. it was still nearly 37% of the population and by then the age range was 12 to 30. That would also explain the diversification of pop music in the mid-'70s. The leading edge was already 30; many were turning to disco and synth-pop.

By now guitar-based rock/pop has largely run its course compared to the days of the Woodstock and Isle of Wight festivals. I picked up guitar in late 1996 when I was 43. It seems that there were many like me, where guitars had a resurgence as Baby Boomers hit middle age and wanted one last fling playing in bands or at least strumming at home. They also had the discretionary income to buy heaps of guitars and amps they couldn't have afforded as teenagers. That's also when 1958 Les Pauls started hitting $240K.

I think of the Baby Boom generation as the inexorable influence on the US economy, about as controllable as plate tectonics. Throughout its existence it has influenced inflation, real estate prices, dealing with school crowding, and just about everything else, including musical tastes and demand for the instruments to play them.

Consider:

  • The first mass protests happened in Berkeley in 1964. This is when the first year Baby Boomers turned 18.
  • Inflation in the US tripled between 1967 and 1985. 1967 is when the first-year boomers turned 21, and 1985 is when the final-year boomers turned 21. I have so far found no other 19-year period in the 20th century when inflation tripled. In fact, inflation has only doubled in the 32 years since 1985.  The $419 I spent in 1972 for my first stereo is equivalent to $2,453.72 today.
  • In the early '80s, real estate loans were going for 15-18%, when the last of the Baby Boomers were turning 21.
  • Now the Baby Boomers are aged 53 to 71. I turn 64 in less than 2 mos and I often don't have the energy to do half the things I really like that I used to do every chance I had. 

It's further complicated by the fact that Millenials have little to no interest in all the stuff the boomers accumulated through the years. For example, what was once heirloom furniture is now thrift shop donation fodder.  It's not just guitars: it's also fine china, silverware, bed frames, burled wood, bureaus, wardrobes, sofas, end tables, dining sets, etc.

                                I think that sums it up nicely, I just turned 65 last month. My wife and I used to collect antiques and had a older "ViCTORIAN" house {Now we have a new modern home and much of what we had is gone [sold] or packed away]..................she collected things like beautiful old oil lamps and furniture..............loved that "Family Affair" TV show so she collected the coloring books, books, '"Mrs. Beasley" dolls, lunch boxes etc. I have always played and collected guitars and musical/guitar related items...............as well as "Greyhound" buses...............the old cast and tin toy ones, I still have 2 cases full of them! I was a in antique store not long ago..........they get old records in...........I only collect private press and Blue Note jazz Lps so I  STILL do look for those. But the owners told me much of this old stuff does not bring the $$$ it used to and often times  they sit on it a long time or it does not sell at all............many of these antique stores have gone out of business.The young generation of today has no interest in these things, they want the latest greatest most high tech stuff they can get their hands on............. cell phones[Not even just a "PHONE" anymore, its a "DEVICE" now.],computers,gaming products etc. So much has changed during my 65 years on the planet, some of  it has been very good and some not so good . I hope people will always love music..........it has been a constant in my life as have guitars.............what is ahead one can only guess.

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It's pretty easy to predict what's ahead. The Boomers, Gen Xers and the core market aficionados for vintage guitars are dead, dying off or their priorities are changing. The vintage guitar market as we knew it 20-35 years ago is dead and/or dying like its core market and it is not coming back. Guys in their 60s and older who come to my shop, we talk about this stuff ALL THE TIME. That demographic is getting more and more willing to part with an old Martin, a pre-CBS or pre-Norlin piece, for reasons ranging from having a cash aside to cover the instability of health insurance in today's world, to something as simple as using the money to get a used party barge they can restore with their son(s) and then host the wife, kids and grandkids on weekend lake outings, for example. The list of higher priorities or simply a more satisfying, gratifying wish list is long and diverse.

Made much easier by the idea that the most desirable guitars in the instruments' collective history are still in constant, relatively unchanged product production decades later (thanks to the unbending, fickle guitarist consumer market) and vintage examples are easily replaced for literally a FRACTION of what their worth, whether the replacement be a "custom shop" prime example (for now) or an imported clone that's cheaper than those disposable televisions or hand-held devices that have conditioned even us old guys that "they don't make 'em like they used to" comes at too steep of a price in today's changing world. It is VERY rare I have a guy who comes in with a vintage guitar that doesn't have modern and cheaper guitars in their stable that are their daily players.

That guitar market cited above, where you fast-forward 20 years from a kid's teenage, musically influential years, to where the kid is now in his mid-30s and with disposable income to afford what they longed for as a kid, apply it now and it's easy to why we are where we are at. The vintage market as we knew it, at least I say it that way because I fall into the aging vintage market consumer market, all we lusted for was guitars and cool cars. Applying that cycle ... what were 15-18 year olds idolizing in 1997?  If guitars are even included in their wish list (urban/rap had overthrown rock and roll as the music of rebellion for the collective masses by then), that era's guitar idols were playing - you guessed it - "custom shop" prime examples or imported clones of vintage guitars. To this group, old guitars are simply "old" and insanely overpriced compared to modern examples. They don't get hard-ons when you talk about old growth mahogany or using pin routers, I assure you. And as we've discussed already, that market is flooded with used examples with more and more of the same old stuff inventory being pumped out daily by the big manufacturers, with a consumer base (flash back to '97) that's completely savvy and conditioned to shopping online, buying online sight unseen, and who don't know what makes a vintage guitar better and quite frankly could absolutely care less.

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22 hours ago, JohnnyB said:

The popularity of guitar-based rock and pop pretty much has risen and fallen with the Baby Boom generation. The boom lasted from 1946 to 1964, where each year the US had around 4 million live births for a 19-year continuous stretch. Those born in 1946 were about 10 when early rock 'n' roll--Elvis, Chuck Berry, Little Richard, Bill Haley, etc.--got going. There were around 40 million americans aged 9-18 in 1964 when The Beatles took hold in America. This was quickly followed by the British Invasion that established guitar-based rock as the baseline for almost all forms of pop music for many years to come. And the entire Baby Boom generation of nearly 80 million people became its primary market. That was 40% of the US population in 1967. In 1976 with the onset of punk, KISS, New Wave, disco, etc. it was still nearly 37% of the population and by then the age range was 12 to 30. That would also explain the diversification of pop music in the mid-'70s. The leading edge was already 30; many were turning to disco and synth-pop.

By now guitar-based rock/pop has largely run its course compared to the days of the Woodstock and Isle of Wight festivals. I picked up guitar in late 1996 when I was 43. It seems that there were many like me, where guitars had a resurgence as Baby Boomers hit middle age and wanted one last fling playing in bands or at least strumming at home. They also had the discretionary income to buy heaps of guitars and amps they couldn't have afforded as teenagers. That's also when 1958 Les Pauls started hitting $240K.

I think of the Baby Boom generation as the inexorable influence on the US economy, about as controllable as plate tectonics. Throughout its existence it has influenced inflation, real estate prices, dealing with school crowding, and just about everything else, including musical tastes and demand for the instruments to play them.

Consider:

  • The first mass protests happened in Berkeley in 1964. This is when the first year Baby Boomers turned 18.
  • Inflation in the US tripled between 1967 and 1985. 1967 is when the first-year boomers turned 21, and 1985 is when the final-year boomers turned 21. I have so far found no other 19-year period in the 20th century when inflation tripled. In fact, inflation has only doubled in the 32 years since 1985.  The $419 I spent in 1972 for my first stereo is equivalent to $2,453.72 today.
  • In the early '80s, real estate loans were going for 15-18%, when the last of the Baby Boomers were turning 21.
  • Now the Baby Boomers are aged 53 to 71. I turn 64 in less than 2 mos and I often don't have the energy to do half the things I really like that I used to do every chance I had. 

It's further complicated by the fact that Millenials have little to no interest in all the stuff the boomers accumulated through the years. For example, what was once heirloom furniture is now thrift shop donation fodder.  It's not just guitars: it's also fine china, silverware, bed frames, burled wood, bureaus, wardrobes, sofas, end tables, dining sets, etc.

Anyone who had the foresight to act on what the baby boomers meant to the economy (and, critically, the impact of "compound interest" over time) was wise. Starting to buy  the "right" stocks in the 60s and real estate (of almost any sort) starting in the 70s, is almost certainly sitting pretty today. (Well, maybe NOT real estate in Detroit or Cleveland or the "Nifty Fifty" stocks at their peak!)

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25 minutes ago, django49 said:

Anyone who had the foresight to act on what the baby boomers meant to the economy (and, critically, the impact of "compound interest" over time) was wise. Starting to buy  the "right" stocks in the 60s and real estate (of almost any sort) starting in the 70s, is almost certainly sitting pretty today. (Well, maybe NOT real estate in Detroit or Cleveland or the "Nifty Fifty" stocks at their peak!)

True, and there must be some investors and venture capitalists who are in tune with the 80 million American consumers moving through their life span. But it seems that so many people in these various businesses and lines of work continue to be ambushed by shifting age demographics. I remember when Gerald Ford was president (1974-1976) and inflation was funning rampant. He started a program called WIN, which stood for Whip Inflation Now. Good luck with that, Jerry. It was an exercise in futility. By 1976, the Baby Boomers' ages ranged from 12 to 30. That's 76-80 million people in the prime consumer age range, including a 12-year cohort (48 million) buying cars and renting apartments and an 8-year cohort (32 million) trying to buy houses. When you have that many people trying to get loans, it sucks up the money supply, the loan rate goes way up, and you have runaway inflation. Like I mentioned before, such a massive cohort was was unmanageable. Whip Inflation Now? 80 million Americans trying to get house and car loans? You might as well have tried to control the shifting of continental plates.

The first book I know of that dealt with the Baby Boom phenomen was Great Expectations, published in 1980. By then the Baby Boom age range was 16 to 34, and many of the things had already happened. Yet we watch Guitar Center, Gibson, and others leveraged to terrifying levels. The population shifts and demographics were there for anyone to see, but they remained in denial and continued to double down when they should have been scaling back and diversifying more.

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7 minutes ago, JohnnyB said:

True, but it seems that so many people in these various businesses and lines of work keep getting surprised by shifting age demographics. I remember when Gerald Ford was president (1974-1976) and inflation was funning rampant. He started a program called WIN, which stood for Whip Inflation Now. Good luck with that, Jerry. To me it seemed like an exercise in futility. By 1976, the Baby Boomers' ages ranged from 12 to 30. That's 76-80 million people in the prime consumer age range, including a 12-year cohort (48 million) buying cars and renting apartments and an 8-year cohort (32 million) trying to buy houses. Like I mentioned before, such a massive cohort was was unmanageable. Whip Inflation Now? You might as well have tried to control the shifting of continental plates.

The first book I know of that dealt with the Baby Boom phenomen was Great Expectations, published in 1980. By then the Baby Boom age range was 16 to 34, and many of the things had already happened. Yet we watch Guitar Center, Gibson, and others leveraged to terrifying levels. The population shifts and demographics were there for anyone to see, but they remained in denial and continued to double down when they should have been scaling back and diversifying more.

The most dangerous words generally are, "But it is different THIS time!"

(Or, maybe, "But I will not make the same mistakes as them----I will cash in before the bottom drops out".....Too many people think there will always be a "greater fool" who will bail them out of their bad decisions).

BTW, some obviously got ahead of the BB curve with instruments too......Case in point, Norm's Rare Guitars.

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14 hours ago, Jeff R said:

Applying that cycle ... what were 15-18 year olds idolizing in 1997?  If guitars are even included in their wish list...to this group, old guitars are simply "old" and insanely overpriced compared to modern examples. They don't get hard-ons when you talk about old growth mahogany or using pin routers, I assure you.

I was smack bang in that age range in '97 - and I had a hard-on for vintage. Saved up for a year to buy a '68 strat that had been beaten and stripped.  Agree in principle, but I think the drop-off starts a little later.

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21 minutes ago, DBraz said:

On the original topic - ie the death of the guitar - I remain optimistic.  As I said to Jim on FB:

Music is cyclical.  In a few years we'll all be Gods!

In my case, that goes WELL beyond optimism and ventures into delusion... :lol:

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                               That is  why I have never have bought a guitar because 'Its going to be a great investment for the future"...............it may turn out to be a guitar that sells for more than I paid  for it but............... I always bought the guitar because of what it was...........the sound,the playability,and the beauty of the instrument.

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A correction is coming for all "off-the-shelf" guitars, Hamer included. That $399 Centaura posted the other day is just the tip of the iceberg. $550 Daytonas and T51s, tree-fiddy shredders, $750 Studios are all on the way back, IMO. Same for $550 Fender American Standards, and cheaper Gibsons.

Too many guitars all marketed to a lifestyle that not that many people are excited about any longer.

Owners of expensive, custom guitars are getting caught up in it because people who know the difference are few and far in-between.

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6 hours ago, prototype-fan said:

So you're basically saying we either need to use less wood or more wood.

With the current demographic of this board,  we all would probably be happy with morning wood.......  ;-)

 

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45 minutes ago, Lockbody said:

A correction is coming for all "off-the-shelf" guitars, Hamer included. That $399 Centaura posted the other day is just the tip of the iceberg. $550 Daytonas and T51s, tree-fiddy shredders, $750 Studios are all on the way back, IMO. Same for $550 Fender American Standards, and cheaper Gibsons.

Too many guitars all marketed to a lifestyle that not that many people are excited about any longer.

Owners of expensive, custom guitars are getting caught up in it because people who know the difference are few and far in-between.

Some of us can only hope you are right.

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