2020 PSA: If you buy it you're stuck with it!

[Dasein]

So is it just a surplus of supply leading to low prices and people having a degree of substitution when it comes to specific purchases? or is the fact that "new" gear (even budget gear) is of such a good quality on the bang for buck scale that this has put downward pressure on used gear across the board but on higher end gear for sure...?

[gtrdaddy]

2 minutes ago, Dasein said:

So is it just a surplus of suplly leading to low prices and people having a degree of substitution when it comes to specific purchases? or is the fact that "new" gear (even budget gear) is of such a good quality on the bang for buck scale that this has put downward pressure on used gear across the board but on higher end gear for sure...?

That’s my assessment.

[DBraz]

I think really good examples of rare AND desirable Hamer's will always command a good price.

The standard issue, repeatable stuff, may face some downward pressure.

[polara]

It’s funny: I guess Django49 is a financial advisor, so I hope he’d agree, but this talk of doubt about instruments’ investment value is funny because an investment is a bet placed because of risk. Without risk, you’re not paid a reward. If instrument prices tank because the prevailing wisdom is that guitars are dead, the people buying them prior to a new wave of guitar music dominating popular music will be seen as geniuses. And if no such wave appears and the market vanishes entirely, they’ll be seen as fools. 

[Never2Late]

I haven't sold a Hamer in several years, and I don't plan on doing THAT anytime soon.

I have one last guitar repair project going-on at HEL guitars, we're waiting for good weather to finish the paintwork and re-install the hardware.  Scepter wood-work was tricky, but Mr. Huss was able to tackle it and get it done.

[django49]

5 hours ago, polara said:

It’s funny: I guess Django49 is a financial advisor, so I hope he’d agree, but this talk of doubt about instruments’ investment value is funny because an investment is a bet placed because of risk. Without risk, you’re not paid a reward. If instrument prices tank because the prevailing wisdom is that guitars are dead, the people buying them prior to a new wave of guitar music dominating popular music will be seen as geniuses. And if no such wave appears and the market vanishes entirely, they’ll be seen as fools. 

Well, thanks for the vote of confidence, I think.....I am about 15 years and over 1000 miles removed from when I was overseeing a "rather significant" investment portfolio.....And now quite content to be managing smaller portfolios of real estate and equity investments for a select group of folks. So take my thoughts with a grain of salt for their $.02 worth....And likely overpriced at that.....😉

There are not many people that are adept at turning investments in guitars into "investments". Whomever they are, I am certainly not one of them.....

For myself, I have (DUH!) ended up acquiring a large number over the years. (I am down a lot from my prior excesses, thank goodness!) I bought what appealed to me. I (mostly) bought used, and typically ended up regretting it when I DID buy new. Now and then there were things that popped up that were no-brainer bargains that I was in the right position at the right time.  I WILL admit that I (usually) think about value....As in, "How much am I willing to LOSE for the privilege of 'renting' this one for awhile?" If I break even, that is a bonus, but not all that common. In several cases, where i did get a great deal, I have passed them on to others. Often right here. (Of course, there have been some over the years where a "profit" occurred. But if I ever thought of making, or even supplementing, my living income by being either a musician or a music reseller, it was certainly a passing pipe dream).

My semi-detached view on the market today? Def not a seller's market. But hard to call it a buyer's market. Seems to me a lot of really nice things (including some of mine) are not selling. But my sense is that sellers have not really dropped their asking prices....Even if I WERE looking to buy anything else, I see little that I like enough to get serious.

(There is the other issue of not being able to play as much as I like any more, but that is a whole other topic).

One little story about "investments", bypassing the wish to be able time travel back to the time when what are now "collector;s items" traded for a pittance.....When I seldom had enough cash to then be able to buy anyway.....Any way, round about 2008-09, there were a number of folks that had investable funds and had bought into the stock market in the belief that they had discovered the easy road to riches. As a former broker once told me (in the 70s)......"Every generation discovers the stock market, fails to understand it, throws their money at whatever is hot, gets burned, then sulks away to lick their wounds, learning nothing from the process". In a word, buy high, sell low. (And I can tell stories of how that works in real estate too).

Well, to cut to the chase (to the extent I can even DO THAT)......Back about 10-12 years, there were quite a few folks that got the bright idea to take their losses and chase something else. Their brilliant idea? "Well, I am still employed and making good money. No point in repeating a failed strategy (by using cash flow to buy good stocks that were beaten down to bargain levels, something hard to evaluate by anyone listening to the "disaster will continue forever" headlines). So what to do? Simple, buy an "investment grade guitar" for $7000 or so EVERY MONTH. Shoot, what could go wrong?") I ran into a fair number of people that told me almost exactly that.......Well, first, they did NOT hold their value. Second, they missed the rocket of a stock market that followed, then being too afraid to get in after missing the turnaround. And, amazingly enough, the gains of 2016-2019  were in some ways even better. (I personally think it is time to take some money off the table, but what do I know?)

I do NOT know where we go from here and would be loathe to pretend I can give advice that would fit everyone's circumstances. What I CAN say is that I picked up some pretty damn good guitars at a nice discount from folks when their "investment" strategy fell short. Most of which I still have and appreciate. But what I will say is that anyone trying to "time the market" by snagging "good deals" on guitars here in early 2020 is very likely to be quite disappointed........Buy what you like or need. Just don't think of it as an investment.

 

Sorry for droning on........

[Studio Custom]

Over the long term there will an increase in supply as we retire and die, with a simultaneous decrease in demand as playing an instrument is not part of most kids lives anymore.   

[Dutchman]

4 hours ago, Studio Custom said:

Over the long term there will an increase in supply as we retire and die, with a simultaneous decrease in demand as playing an instrument is not part of most kids lives anymore.   

It’s a shame that there seem’s to be less interest in playing guitar in the younger generations. It’s a fun, challenging instrument! I started out listening to Chet Atkins and graduated to the Beatle’s etc. Seemed like everyone had a cheap jap guitar in the 60’s!

Now you can buy an app for your phone and make music. I admit I have a drum app on mine I use for practice. 
There is a need for a new guitar star to inspire the next generations!!  There is just so much more to do than there was 60 years ago...

[BadgerDave]

Where are you guys seeing low prices?

On Reverb, asking prices on the higher end guitars that are interesting to me, like 80's Hamers, custom shop Fenders and Gibsons, 1st generation Fanos, etc. continue to go up.  The lowest asking prices on Gibson R9s were in the low $3,000 range a couple of years ago.  That's gone up at least $1,000.00 with most in the $4,500 - $5,500 range. Sellers are listing 80s Hamer Specials at more than $2,000.  These sold for $1,200 recently.

Of course.very few of these are actually selling.

[Studio Custom]

34 minutes ago, BadgerDave said:

Of course.very few of these are actually selling.

Asking and getting are to vastly different issues.  

[BadgerDave]

13 minutes ago, Studio Custom said:

Asking and getting are to vastly different issues.  

Certainly true.  But, since these guitars continue to be listed, it's clear that the sellers aren't accepting lower prices.  I'm not seeing actual sale prices moving lower.  Of course it's possible that listings at lower prices sell very quickly and disappear from the online sites.

[MCChris]

2 hours ago, BadgerDave said:

Certainly true.  But, since these guitars continue to be listed, it's clear that the sellers aren't accepting lower prices.

That's because they're a bunch of entitled asshats who haven't gotten the memo that their profiteering days are over.

[LucSulla]

3 hours ago, BadgerDave said:

Where are you guys seeing low prices?

On Reverb, asking prices on the higher end guitars that are interesting to me, like 80's Hamers, custom shop Fenders and Gibsons, 1st generation Fanos, etc. continue to go up.  The lowest asking prices on Gibson R9s were in the low $3,000 range a couple of years ago.  That's gone up at least $1,000.00 with most in the $4,500 - $5,500 range. Sellers are listing 80s Hamer Specials at more than $2,000.  These sold for $1,200 recently.

Of course.very few of these are actually selling.

Those guys are fools, and I'm enjoying watching them get burned.  I sold the Miller Time for $1400 I think to someone using a secondary account on Reverb to mask that they are a gear flipper.  He listed it a week later at something like $2400, and there it has sat for months, along with the other Miller Times around that price.  It's not that I won't sell to a flipper, but if I know that's what they are up to, I tend to stick to my guns a lot harder on my original price than I do with y'all.  Only reason it pisses me off is that I let something go for a deal that is now locked out of the hands of anyone around here who'd like to try one for awhile.  Kinda reminds me of what has happened with Van Winkle whiskey, but I digress. 

I think the easier opportunities for us normies are gone.  I feel like the USA made pointy guitars were the last thing that you could have picked up 10 to 12 years ago and doubled your money on today.  For instance, Jackson Fusions were going for around $500-$700 back in 2007 and are currently bringing in $1300 - $1600, and we're probably at peak value for those.  

I think the only way to make money on guitars these days if you're a guy like me who was trying to do it on the side is if you live in a rural area, you can exploit the lack of knowledge (not knowing about forums and Reverb) and superstition (people don't really buy before they can play, that's crazy!) to find good deals on Facebook and Craigslist and then sell them back off on Reverb or eBay for a couple hundred dollars profit on each one if you're smart.  But you'd have to move a lot of those in a month for that to be worthwhile because the margins are small.  I'm not sure it would be worth the time and gas to do it. 

[gtrdaddy]

2 hours ago, LucSulla said:

if you're a guy like me who was trying to do it on the side is if you live in a rural area, you can exploit the lack of knowledge

Who you tryin’ to hooduu, you hoodooin’ me?

[crunchee]

7 hours ago, LucSulla said:

Those guys are fools, and I'm enjoying watching them get burned.  I sold the Miller Time for $1400 I think to someone using a secondary account on Reverb to mask that they are a gear flipper.  He listed it a week later at something like $2400, and there it has sat for months, along with the other Miller Times around that price.  It's not that I won't sell to a flipper, but if I know that's what they are up to, I tend to stick to my guns a lot harder on my original price than I do with y'all.  Only reason it pisses me off is that I let something go for a deal that is now locked out of the hands of anyone around here who'd like to try one for awhile.  Kinda reminds me of what has happened with Van Winkle whiskey, but I digress. 

I think the easier opportunities for us normies are gone.  I feel like the USA made pointy guitars were the last thing that you could have picked up 10 to 12 years ago and doubled your money on today.  For instance, Jackson Fusions were going for around $500-$700 back in 2007 and are currently bringing in $1300 - $1600, and we're probably at peak value for those.  

I think the only way to make money on guitars these days if you're a guy like me who was trying to do it on the side is if you live in a rural area, you can exploit the lack of knowledge (not knowing about forums and Reverb) and superstition (people don't really buy before they can play, that's crazy!) to find good deals on Facebook and Craigslist and then sell them back off on Reverb or eBay for a couple hundred dollars profit on each one if you're smart.  But you'd have to move a lot of those in a month for that to be worthwhile because the margins are small.  I'm not sure it would be worth the time and gas to do it. 

IMO, the Internet has become the great leveller in 'collectibles' of any type, not just guitars and amps, and Google is my friend...and I don't think there are 'regional' markets or trends anymore, at least not like there used to be.  The real work nowadays for me when looking for gear is in doing online research ('due diligence'), and making sure I don't get ripped off by sellers with inflated prices and items in questionable condition.  Some sellers out there might still hope to find a buyer that'll throw money at them for an item with a vague two-line description, blurry photos and a steep price, like what was happening twenty-five years ago...but that buyer ain't likely to be me.  When I do a search for something being sold (normally on Ebay or Reverb), I enter limits on the prices of things I'm looking for, and I never even see the items that are priced above that.  So, if a seller is selling something at an inflated price, I'm very likely the wrong audience for their sales pitch anyway, and I don't sweat the possibility that I'm gonna miss the snag of a lifetime; because nowadays, 999 times out of a thousand, that ain't gonna happen.  A man's gotta know his limitations.    

[django49]

Slight update.......Does not change my overall assessment, but some things DO get some action.

I mentioned something about buying new and regretting it. Well, regret is a relative term.

There were a relative few PRS Private stocks made to a specific formula. Well, I got so infatuated with certain necks that "go beyond Brazilian Rosewood" that I had to grab one with a chaltecoco neck. Not to mention various other no longer available parts (like ivory inlays and trim). I was never unhappy with it, the tone, the playability.....Just why did I spend so much?

Anyway, I did finally cut it loose today. I may regret it, but both the buyer and I are satisfied it was a fair price.....Obviously, it was at a loss. Butt a "fair price to pay to rent" a pretty unique instrument. Pictures for fun......

 

Kinda lousy pictures.......Hard to capture the full impact of the quilt and the "Dragon's Breath" finish.

Meanwhile, several OTHER things I have advertised are not moving. Though a few people plan to visit from "out of town" in the next month.Who knows? Maybe things loosen up with tax refunds.

 

[Brooks]

On 1/19/2020 at 3:31 PM, LucSulla said:

I tend to look at selling gear more as minimizing my losses rather than ever breaking even or making any money.  I've even rationalized any losses I take as the cost to "rent" that instrument for however long I had it. 

 

I lump small losses from sold gear in with the money I make from gigs, as I consider gear upgrades a cost of doing business (even part time business; it's nice to have a hobby that earns money). Plus, I sell stuff I no longer use, and own only 3-4 guitars/amps at a time (I know that seems sad to some of y'all, ha). Last 2 years were some of my slowest gig years since I started playing, yet I still stayed "in the black", even when subtracting the purchase cost of my most expensive guitar ever (custom ordered Kiesel HH2).

 

[ARM OF HAMER]

                                                     Last December I sold a guitar,then bought another in that same month with those funds I had been looking at for a long,long time.Now.............. DONE! I have never bought guitars as "Investments" I have done that with other things that ARE,which is why I'm able to be retired now and not have to worry and can enjoy these guitars as well as life in general.

[Ting Ho Dung]

On 1/19/2020 at 10:33 PM, Dasein said:

I keep hearing how amazing your economy is.... I mean - everybody is working down there and has sacks of $$$ around the house right? Gear should be flying off the shelves right?

China is a new market for me. 1.4 billion potential new customers. Sent my first order for 2k to a broker in Korea who will move them to China. Been a great year. Not guitar related though. Don't know shit about guitars.

[BubbaVO]

1 minute ago, Ting Ho Dung said:

China is a new market for me. 1.4 billion potential new customers. Sent my first order for 2k to a broker in Korea who will move them to China. Been a great year. Not guitar related though. Don't know shit about guitars.

Welcome back, Dude.  

 

[RobB]

5 minutes ago, Ting Ho Dung said:

China is a new market for me. 1.4 billion potential new customers. Sent my first order for 2k to a broker in Korea who will move them to China.

Don’t you feel conflicted knowing your scaly little buddies are going to be someone’s dinner?

[gtrdaddy]

28 minutes ago, RobB said:

Don’t you feel conflicted knowing your scaly little buddies are going to be someone’s dinner?

[ARM OF HAMER]

On 2/5/2020 at 1:46 PM, django49 said:

Slight update.......Does not change my overall assessment, but some things DO get some action.

I mentioned something about buying new and regretting it. Well, regret is a relative term.

There were a relative few PRS Private stocks made to a specific formula. Well, I got so infatuated with certain necks that "go beyond Brazilian Rosewood" that I had to grab one with a chaltecoco neck. Not to mention various other no longer available parts (like ivory inlays and trim). I was never unhappy with it, the tone, the playability.....Just why did I spend so much?

Anyway, I did finally cut it loose today. I may regret it, but both the buyer and I are satisfied it was a fair price.....Obviously, it was at a loss. Butt a "fair price to pay to rent" a pretty unique instrument. Pictures for fun......

 

Kinda lousy pictures.......Hard to capture the full impact of the quilt and the "Dragon's Breath" finish.

Meanwhile, several OTHER things I have advertised are not moving. Though a few people plan to visit from "out of town" in the next month.Who knows? Maybe things loosen up with tax refunds.

 

                                         WOW! that IS beautiful!.......................................even the case looks cool and top notch...............not unexpected considering the guitar in it.

[Ting Ho Dung]

2 hours ago, RobB said:

Don’t you feel conflicted knowing your scaly little buddies are going to be someone’s dinner?

Yes I do. But most of them are going to the pet trade. Those who aren't are being raised  in good conditions and then dispatched as adults. This is a good cause for captive bred going to the breakfast table as opposed to one more wild animal being taken from the ecosystem. I have a friend who sends 10,000 snapping turtle babies over there for the same reason. One more captive bred turtle that isn't endangered replacing one in the wild that is. There are so many Chinese animals going extinct. Very sad.

[gtrdaddy]

1 hour ago, Ting Ho Dung said:

There are so many Chinese animals going extinct.

They need to change their diets.