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Buyer's Market? Or Seller's Market?


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Buyer's Market:  U.S. 3rd COVID-era Stimulus Payment of up to $1400 going out now if not soon.

Seller's Market:  As I'm sure most everyone here already knows and has seen mentioned over the last year here on the HFC, and from what I've seen on Reverb in the last year or so, since COVID made it's presence known and the economy took the corresponding hit, asking prices seem to have gone up...IMO, a used MIM Fender guitar used to be about $500~$600 (generic ballpark figure), but asking prices seem to be in the $600~$700 range nowadays, again generically speaking for a pretty narrow section of the market.  I'm pretty sure that more (sometimes far more) extreme examples can be found, with a few having already been posted here on the HFC for entertainment value.  Reverb's 'Price Guide' prices seem to be noticeably underpriced (and generally useless) for any particular used guitar, compared with what some people are asking for used guitars nowadays, which makes me think Reverb's 'Price Guide' is in dire need of updating...either that, or it's a prime example of "Askin' Ain't Sellin'" by a whole lotta sellers.  <_<

Thoughts?

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Prices have definitely gone up.  In fact, 2020 was a great year for guitars in general.   Sweetwater was selling 1,000 guitars a day and posted $1 billion in revenue for the first time ever (plagiarized the shit out of that headline).

https://www.rollingstone.com/pro/news/music-instruments-sweetwater-reverb-guitar-center-1119868/

Reverb had a banner year as well.
 

Quote

While the Etsy-owned Reverb — an online-only marketplace similar in design to Etsy, but for musical equipment — has not yet released its gross merchandise sales (GMS) data for the fourth quarter, CEO David Mandelbrot tells Rolling Stone that Reverb saw its highest quarterly GMS yet in 2020’s second quarter. And the third quarter numbers were up more than 30% compared to the same period last year.


I can't imagine that level of demand is not affecting prices.  Anecdotally, I've managed to find some OK prices by watching things, but things are going for more.  Gibson has a "Demo" shop on Reverb that is just a straight price, no offers.  None of that stuff lasts long, and 90% of the time, it isn't much of a deal, particularly when you get a guitar stamped with "Demo" or "Mod".   I've also been out-offered on a few things I really expected to get.  

I don't think there is any denying things are up. It's not exactly a bonanza, but I'd expect to spend $100-$200 more.

The question now is if all of this new gear that went out the door is going to flood the market and lower prices after the pandemic eases up I would think.

 

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Another thought - 

This may affect guitars more than amps.  The kind of stuff I entertain buying enough to keep up with - Splawns, Bogner Shiva's, Mesa Royal Atlantics - all that stuff is about the same as always.  You've been able to score RAs or Shivas in good shape for $1-$1.2k for awhile now, and that doesn't seem to have changed.  The lunchbox amps I watch, like the Victory Sheriff, those are still moving for under $800.   I noticed a couple of months ago that I had started watching amps more than guitars, and this may have been a subconscious shift due to seeing more promising amp scores than guitar scores the last six months. 

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7 minutes ago, LucSulla said:

Prices have definitely gone up.  It's not exactly a bonanza, 

It really depends on the item... Example: mid 80s Japanese Charvel model 1's and 2's have gone up over 100% and up

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7 hours ago, gtrdaddy said:

Buyers' Market or Sellers' Market?

I think people are fishing. Banking on stimulus refund payments from people who don't need the money for necessities, hoping those refund recipients will spend it more freely.

The statistical data shows the first rounds of stimulus went largely to paying down debt and to savings (in that order). It could be this round gets the “mad money” treatment and we see buying sprees from pent up demand. 

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Honestly,

There will be a huge sell off very soon. Great guitars will swamp the market place. My view is the guitar centric generation (OK Boomer!) Is dwindling. It has been a 25 years since rock has fallen out of favor. Post WWII-1996, that is a good run

Anecdotely I betcha traffic here is less than even 5-6 years ago.

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5 minutes ago, 0054 said:

It has been a 25 years since rock has fallen out of favor. Post WWII-1996, that is a good run

I'm not so sure rock has fallen out of favor. Perhaps on commercial radio. Have you seen crowds pre-covid for rock jam band concerts and other acts? There are tons of new guitar based acts out there as well. 

 

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16 hours ago, Dave Scepter said:

It really depends on the item... Example: mid 80s Japanese Charvel model 1's and 2's have gone up over 100% and up

Yep.  In a brief, yet fleeting fit of nostalgia a couple of years ago,  I flirted with scoring a Model 2.  I had a couple of Model 2s that I bought with my own moolah back when I was 16 and I sold them for about $350 each back in the early/mid '90s.   Those were really my first legit high quality guitars. But now that I've watched the prices go through the ceiling...that nostalgia has waned.  They weren't that great.

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The only thing.  Not sure I get the gc part of this boom.  I don’t see busy stores.    I see what possibly looks like inventory cut to less than half and some brands that I don’t quite recognize.     Kind of remembered daddy’s junky music taking on different lines at the end.   Wondered if they were at their credit limit with g and f.   Dave 

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From what I've noticed is quality guitars are up from $500.00 to $800.00 asking prices. They'll hold closely to that number around 60 day's and then accept a lower offer. Lowball anything over 120 day's or search hard for what's not right and scub from your search list!

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Have been looking at Classic Vibe Telescope, MIM and G&L ASAT Tributes.  Either a seller’s market or elevated asking prices.  There seem to be no new Classic Vibe 50’s in stock at retailers, the good used ones are as much or more than new price.

Patience is your friend.  The stimulus bubble will work itself through as we see what people actually do with it. My wife needs a new recliner, therefore no higher end Tele for me.

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