Is the era of high end guitars over? Too expen$ive?

[Armitage]

I've been talking to some friends, mostly about the really expensive Les Pauls and such, but it still makes me wonder...

Is the era of high end guitars over? There haven't been any guitar heroes of late, that I know of anywayz, and the next big thing seems to have very little guitar and lots of old analog synths. Kind of like a New Wave resurgence.

Other than older guys, who's going to be putting up the big bucks for USA guitars. New or used. After all, Asian manufacturers have been doing a pretty good job of making very serviceable guitars for not a lot of money. And there's a zillion Les Paul etc already out there, many in their cases for bedroom rockers to leer at.

Some of us have huge collections to unload too, we're all getting older...

Or is it just a temp dip in the economy?

Any thoughts?

[django49]

With the caveat that I have too much stuff, so take with a grain of salt......There are way too many guitars out there, and too many more being made every day, for the (us) aging enthusiasts and a younger crowd that cares a lot less----As you say. What does Gibson (Re)issue each year from their custom shop? And how many of those pop up on (you know the sites) at a healthy discount within a year or so after having upgraded pickups or whatever, being marketed as the "best guitar I ever had, but......"

At least if you buy it when it is used (barely) you are not in quite so deep.

I would say buy what you like and can use----Or at least appreciate ("Playable art" in my opinion). I (as an investment person) suggest they NOT be taken as a serious "investment" (in a financial sense) or even as a reliable "store of value". And they should not be stacked up in lieu of adequately providing for a decent current lifestyle, retirement planning and providing for kids education.

One way you MIGHT think of it-----Figure out what you THINK they are worth and then deduct for the cost of selling. THEN, think how it would affect you (Mentally AND financially) if they were worth HALF that much in 5-10 years. If THAT thought scares you, well......

Now if a person is a professional (as in actually generating revenue from music) and the gear is an expense of earning a living that is different----to a point. So long as it is not a rationalization to spend more than is really prudent. (I am not a pro and never will be, so I am clearly not operating in a very rational manner). If they make you happy and you can afford them, cool. Better than "investing" in Corvettes or other mid-life crisis toys, I suppose. (But my better half is becoming increasingly skeptical of that rationale!)

Dip in the market? Depends. Without getting into trouble by making it political, there is a lot of strange stuff going on. The financial situation in the world is fraught with obstacles and it would not take too much to fall into another big crisis (IMO). Too many people at high levels (not SPECIFICALLY aimed at elected type folks) playing too many games with short term goals and too little long term planning. The economy does seem to be getting better. Slowly on average. SOME people are doing extremely well. Many more are barely getting ahead and may (OFTEN) actually be falling behind. Esp with inadequate savings and the like. And a younger generation burdened by debt AND paying for their parents pensions AND not really expecting that pensions, Social Security and such will actually BE THERE when they need it-----How will THEY ever become collectors of multiple expensive guitars? And "doctor and lawyer guitars"? Doctors are likely to get increasingly squeezed economically. And there are a helluva lot of attorneys looking for work.(A friend's daughter graduated from Duke Law, no shabby institution. The SCHOOL was paying a public agency to hire her so their employment records would not look so bad-----And she was getting TEN DOLLARS AN HOUR after passing the bar exam!)

DANG-----I better post some more of mine for sale before the anti-depressants wear off!

[cynic]

I don't think it's temporary enough that any boomer will sell their collections at much of, if any of a profit.

With high numbers still being pumped out new and the numbers of basically NOS guitars that will hit the market over the next 25 years as the boomers sell off their nostalgia, I don't see it being a true sellers market for a good long while unless you've got something truly unique.

[polara]

Who'd have, 10 years ago, predicted old Moogs would be worth a fortune now? Just saying that the crystal ball of art and nostalgia is a foggy one. django49 speaks words of wisdom, but I think there will be a market for high-end ANYTHING as long as there is also a market for the mundane of that same thing.

[Steve Haynie]

Something consistent in good times and bad times is desire. Someone will always want the most expensive gear out there because only the best will be good enough.

[RichRS6]

A couple of things to add here.

There must be a market for all these guitars or the manufacturers would not keep on making them, maybe not as big as in the 60's - 70's, that peak will never be repeated.

The population of the planet is increasing so everyday there are more potential guitar freaks arriving daily especially in the newly prosperous asian markets.

Even "modern pop" bands still include a guitarist or 2 in their line ups and it's still the main instrument to learn play if you're interested in being in a band.

The last techno revolution (late 80's) didn't kill off the guitar industry as predicted, there's still a long way to go before Rock n Roll is dead.

There are new "heroes" to inspire new players but few of them make it into the mainstream as the main driver for radio play/record sales is (unfortunately) not the musical ability but good looks, hairstyles and profitability.

I'm no expert but there will always be a market for certain vintage instruments, 50's Lesters and Fenders.

Collectors with lots (and lots) of money to spend don't really worry about the value as most collectors understand the possibility that the value of their collections will rise and fall with the economic climate and collectors are a different fish to investors.

If you're looking for investments there are better options than guitars.

[DBraz]

My feeling - from the UK - is that the economy has a LONG way to go before people return to frivolous spending.

Even though the economy over here is improving, most of it (bar London) is improving at a very slow pace and is no where near the output that was seen in late 2007/early 2008.

Businesses and families have cut back wherever they can in the last 5 years and there is a whiff in the air that something bad could still happen.

If anyone was asking me I would say that, with average people, it will be at least a few years before people readjust their new spending habits and, when they do, expensive guitars will be the last thing on their mind to whack out money on.

Mortgages, holidays, pensions, savings and education will take priority. Adding another guitar to a collection of 10+ will wait or not happen at all.

[burningyen]

With the caveat that I have too much stuff, so take with a grain of salt......There are way too many guitars out there, and too many more being made every day, for the (us) aging enthusiasts and a younger crowd that cares a lot less----As you say. What does Gibson (Re)issue each year from their custom shop? And how many of those pop up on (you know the sites) at a healthy discount within a year or so after having upgraded pickups or whatever, being marketed as the "best guitar I ever had, but......"

At least if you buy it when it is used (barely) you are not in quite so deep.

I would say buy what you like and can use----Or at least appreciate ("Playable art" in my opinion). I (as an investment person) suggest they NOT be taken as a serious "investment" (in a financial sense) or even as a reliable "store of value". And they should not be stacked up in lieu of adequately providing for a decent current lifestyle, retirement planning and providing for kids education.

One way you MIGHT think of it-----Figure out what you THINK they are worth and then deduct for the cost of selling. THEN, think how it would affect you (Mentally AND financially) if they were worth HALF that much in 5-10 years. If THAT thought scares you, well......

Now if a person is a professional (as in actually generating revenue from music) and the gear is an expense of earning a living that is different----to a point. So long as it is not a rationalization to spend more than is really prudent. (I am not a pro and never will be, so I am clearly not operating in a very rational manner). If they make you happy and you can afford them, cool. Better than "investing" in Corvettes or other mid-life crisis toys, I suppose. (But my better half is becoming increasingly skeptical of that rationale!)

Dip in the market? Depends. Without getting into trouble by making it political, there is a lot of strange stuff going on. The financial situation in the world is fraught with obstacles and it would not take too much to fall into another big crisis (IMO). Too many people at high levels (not SPECIFICALLY aimed at elected type folks) playing too many games with short term goals and too little long term planning. The economy does seem to be getting better. Slowly on average. SOME people are doing extremely well. Many more are barely getting ahead and may (OFTEN) actually be falling behind. Esp with inadequate savings and the like. And a younger generation burdened by debt AND paying for their parents pensions AND not really expecting that pensions, Social Security and such will actually BE THERE when they need it-----How will THEY ever become collectors of multiple expensive guitars? And "doctor and lawyer guitars"? Doctors are likely to get increasingly squeezed economically. And there are a helluva lot of attorneys looking for work.(A friend's daughter graduated from Duke Law, no shabby institution. The SCHOOL was paying a public agency to hire her so their employment records would not look so bad-----And she was getting TEN DOLLARS AN HOUR after passing the bar exam!)

DANG-----I better post some more of mine for sale before the anti-depressants wear off!

And a good morning to you too!

[dragan]

I think the guitar market ( vintage/ investment ) suffers with a poor economy , but it also has many social issues & trends that effect it in a good economy . so .. trying to" invest " is a gamble at best . I only buy used guitars that I, like / have nostalgia for at ,"player" type prices and hold them , use them , enjoy the heck out of them & hope not to loss money on them( best senario )

[Turdus]

35 years ago, there weren't many imports to choose from. Fender and Gibson only had US lines. So maybe you started on a Japanese import, but you probably had aspirations of moving to Gibson or Fender.... real quick.

Today, Fender has what? 30 different lines to chaose from? The kids that buy today don't have the same incentive we had to quickly want that US guitar. With all the guys bragging about how great the imports are... there's even less incentive.

So yes... I look at all the new Fender basses on Ebay, and think to myself.... what will become of those, cause nobody is buying.

[jwhitcomb3]

Ten years ago I wouldn't have considered an acoustic guitar under $1000. I've bought two sub $400 acoustic guitars over the past two year and am enjoying them both, to the point that my high end acoustics haven't come out of their cases in months. My most played electric guitars are a MIM Fender Strat (modified) and a Carvin Fatboy (which cost more than the other three guitars I'm playing combined).

The combination of a glut of good, low priced guitars and a dearth of young guitar heroes to pump life into the higher end brands leads me to believe the mid-high priced guitars will be a tough sell for the next few years. There are enough folks doing really well to support the uber-high end market.

[JohnnyThunders]

High-end market is driven by the boomers. Very few other people have the cash to play the game.

Once they stop spending, there goes the high-end guitar market.

As with everything else, quality is getting better, prices are dropping. Everything is becoming a disposable commodity in a worldwide marketplace.

[murkat]

"I'm not selling to players, players sell for me, I am selling a Lifestyle"

An answer I got from Henry during a Q&A at the GCS.

[Lockbody]

I (somewhat) remember a quote from someone on here a while back:

"When times are bad, you want to be selling Cadillacs, not Chevrolets."

Big ticket items will always have their crowd.

[carfish7]

People also need to realize that the "boom time" leading up to 2008 was all false - it was brought on by cheap money/credit and housing prices rising artificially fast. That led to people thinking their house was an ATM and that prices would NEVER retreat.

Anyone waiting for a repeat of THAT era will be waiting a VERY long time. It was NOT normal........

[velorush]

"I'm not selling to players, players sell for me, I am selling a Lifestyle"

An answer I got from Henry during a Q&A at the GCS.

I think that was valid up to about five years ago (and I also think Fender ate their lunch at selling the 'lifestyle' - which (also my opinion) was a travesty as I think the niche was Gibson's to lose... and they just handed it to Fender. Harley Davidson, however, is the all-time king).

Every morning I wake up, sit up in bed and staring me in the face are the guitars I was playing the night before [this morning it was the '82 Cruise and the '62 VHRRI Strat I've been wrenching on lately]. Looking at them, I still get the same excitement as walking home from school when I was twelve and stopping by the local Gibson dealer.

Guitars are cool. It may take a while for another generation to discover this (2112, anyone?), but they will.

Synths were going to kill guitars (still love me some Gary Numan!). Drum machines were going to put an end to the need for human drummers. Sampling was going to put an end to live musicians. And yet, here we are.

Of course, maybe the jazz guys were having similar discussions in the late 50's (heard one morning in Pompeii, "hey, did you feel that?").

[gorch]

With the world population growing the market will remain to grow. Economic growth of developing countries will fuel this perpective too. At the same time natural reserves will decrease. I don't think value guitars will loose value anytime soon.

[RichRS6]

Good point Gorch, pretty soon Gibson and Fender will only be able to make guitars from plywood and resin.

[zorrow]

I don't think it's over. I know several young players and they do like high-end guitars, although I think it's only Gibson what's considered "cool enough" from all the more traditional brands. I mean, they're more into ESP, Jackson, Ibanez, Dean, BC Rich and such.

The aesthetics and features they value change too. They prefer custom finishes to figured tops, active to passive electronics, more imaginative inlays to blocks or dots... but they still like quality guitars built to higher standards.

For the future, my conclusion is that we might have to stick our vintage stuff up our asses, but by no means that implies the youngsters aren't dreaming of owning top gear. They're not that dumb, I guarantee you that. Many of them do work, have plans and do know what they want. Many of them have supportive parents as well.

So, no, it's not over. High-end guitars will always exist. They will just change in nature, as tastes evolve, but that's just a fact of life.

[Tres Aardvarks]

So, no, it's not over. High-end guitars will always exist. They will just change in nature, as tastes evolve, but that's just a fact of life.

I'd agree with this. Will the market for high-zoot guitars contract (due to economic issues)? Yes, for sure. While there are still plenty of people with big money, the ones caught in the middle will continue to get squeezed and have less money for such luxuries. Edited to add: This is much like the cars people buy. Ten years ago in Colorado, it seemed everyone just HAD to have an Audi or BMW 3 or 5 series. When the market tanked again, suddenly the used car lots were filled with them and we saw more "normal" cars on the streets. Were there still Ferraris around the corner? Heck yeah. This year we moved to an area known for people moving here from Manhattan and Washington DC (with $$$ and tired of the city). There are far less Beemers and Audis, but the ones we see are surprising: 6 and 7 series BMWs! I saw more 7 series Beemers in one week than I'd seen in 10 years in Colorado!

Also, yes, the TYPE of high end guitar will change. I for one have never had any interest in either historic or expensive reproductions of Gibsons or Fenders. Why? My guitar heros during my formative years did not play them. So, the younger generations will want guitars just like their heros, or in a similar style when they are older, have good paying jobs and can spend that money. Could be that they go for custom ESPs, Schecters, whatever. There will always be the ones who want the "classic" guitars (especially the ones who follow blues or jazz), but that will dwindle.

[gorch]

When I see the value vintage guitars of the German brand Hoyer still score, I don't fear for Hamer for the next 10-20 years from now on. Even V models are well sought after. Zorrow knows the market pretty well.

[crunchee]

"Is the era for high end guitars over? Too Expen$ive?"

Yes, for me it is.

[peedenmark7]

I remember walking into stores in the late 70s looking at Dean guitars which were priced around $1400+ thinking how does a kid my age afford one of these, and I never did get a new one. I landed on Hamer mainly because of Nielsen, but also because there was an awful lot of bang for your buck in a Sunburst priced in the $500 ish range. Same thing with the early Kramers @ $450 were blue collar priced guitars that were well built.

In the mid 80s while working in a Milwaukee music store, The Charvel & Jackson craze hit , during that early stage we were getting full and sometimes over full retail [$2500] because demand exceeded supply. People just didn't care what they cost. My cost on a new Soloist Custom with Floyd in '85 was near $1300, and then I thought how am I gonna afford this ,but I did.

Today, A new custom shop Jackson is what , $3500 base , My old Spalted Hamer Standard ordered back in '06 was $3850 my cost, And I still said how am I gonna afford all of this, yet I kept buying.

Obviously not all guitars we buy are custom made for us, but the dollar isn't worth what it once was, so are we in actuality paying more or less than 30 years ago vs. the current makers wage ?

I find little to get excited about guitar wise these days. My heroes have either gone under or been bought out, and what is being put out by those once great namesakes pales in comparison to their glory years.

Anniversaries and Reissues do nothing for me.

It's been hard, but I have been branching out , leaving what have come to know, love and expect, while discovering new/old companies like Robin for example, though wonderful players , there really isn't that big buck tag or even a draw really. I wouldn't build a collection around them, but having a few is a nice alternative .

The thrill of the chase sometimes far exceeds the thrill of the kill for me as I still only play the same 4-5 guitars.

So to answer your question , I think if you don't play them, they are all expensive.

[dragan]

stars & collectors have expen$ive " high end guitars " , players have "player" guitars . once you get above a certain price point( say $1000 ) , no one cares or hears any difference out in the audience. so its either investment or lust that drive high end stuff ,I am more guilty of the later, but have little that would be considered "high end ", just good equipment . I admit I'd love to own several 12k-100k guitars & amps ,but reality check, it aint gonna happen ! I still play about 36 gigs / year and for me the market is irrelevant .Its all about making a little cash on the side , having fun , and entertaining the audience. Ive seen several "eras" come to an end ,I love to play the guitar end of story for me.

[peedenmark7]

stars & collectors have expen$ive " high end guitars " , players have "player" guitars . once you get above a certain price point( say $1000 ) , no one cares or hears any difference out in the audience. so its either investment or lust that drive high end stuff ,I am more guilty of the later, but have little that would be considered "high end ", just good equipment . I admit I'd love to own several 12k-100k guitars & amps ,but reality check, it aint gonna happen ! I still play about 36 gigs / year and for me the market is irrelevant .Its all about making a little cash on the side , having fun , and entertaining the audience. Ive seen several "eras" come to an end ,I love to play the guitar end of story for me.

Well said

[mc2]

I see the high-end guitar market sort of like the high-end automobile market.

There will always be a small segment of both markets with deep pocket buyers/sellers, whether it is new or vintage.

I also think both are largely dependent on current U.S. economic conditions. At the moment we are still in the toilet. Plus, to make it worse, the efforts to minimalize America's influence in the world (politically) also likely reduces our influence socially....reducing demand for American cars, guitars, etc. outside the U.S.

Too bad that none of those TV commercials advising to buy "GOLD!" as the alternative to the weakening U.S. Dollar thought to change the pitch to "Vintage Guitars." THAT would have the market take off like a rocket